Earth & climate · the experiment
Halve the error of climate models
Five generations of CMIP models, and an error that falls as computing climbs. Find the return on computing, then pay the price of the next halving.
1 · Find the return on computing
Beginner
From one generation to the next, the error falls by 21, 28, 21, then 14%. What makes this progress regular?
Two measured jumps: from CMIP2 to CMIP3, computing doubled 2.2 times; from CMIP5 to CMIP6, 1.1 times. Set the error drop per doubling so that both are matched.
2 · Halve the error of CMIP6
Intermediate
A model gets 4 times more computing, that is two doublings. At 13.5% per doubling, how much does its error fall?
Add compute doublings to CMIP6 until its error is halved, with as little computing as possible.
3 · Move at today's pace
Expert
From CMIP5 to CMIP6, computing doubled only 1.1 times. At that pace, how many generations does it take to halve the error of CMIP6?
Each generation adds 1.1 compute doublings. Step forward to the first generation that halves the error of CMIP6.
4 · Look at the rain
Expert
From CMIP1 to CMIP6, the rainfall error fell by only 7%, for about 29 times more computing. At that pace, what would 28 times more computing bring?
Return measured
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