SAMFURORIN YANAYI: SHEKARU TALATIN NA LISSAFI, AMMA RUWAN SAMA HAR YANZU YANA DA WUYA
Samfurorin yanayi ne ke samar da yawancin shaidun da manufofin yanayi suka dogara a kai. Tun 1995, wani shiri na ƙasa da ƙasa mai suna CMIP — Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Shirin Kwatanta Samfuran da aka Haɗa) — yana gudanar da su gefe da gefe, zuriya bayan zuriya, ƙarƙashin dokoki iri ɗaya. Kowace zuriya ta yi amfani da raga mafi ƙanƙanta da ƙarin kimiyyar lissafi (physics), saboda haka ƙarin lissafin kwamfuta. Abin da babu wanda ke bibiya, a cewar wata ƙungiyar masu bincike 24 ƙarƙashin jagorancin Ioana Colfescu (Jami’ar St Andrews da Cibiyar Kimiyyar Sararin Samaniya ta Ƙasa ta Birtaniya), shi ne yawan makamashin da hakan ke ci, da abin da yake saya.
Samfura 159, maki ɗaya na kuskure
Ƙungiyar ta sake lissafa ma’aunin kuskure guda ɗaya ga samfura 159 daga zuriyoyi biyar na CMIP, ta amfani da sakamakonsu da aka adana: yadda yanayin lokacin sanyi (hunturu) na kowane samfuri (1979–1999) ya kauce daga abin da aka gani a zahiri, a kan abubuwa uku — matsin iska a matakin teku, zafin iska a saman ƙasa da ruwan sama. Waɗannan ukun kaɗai, domin zuriya ta biyu ba ta adana komai ba sai su. Ƙasa ya fi kyau.
Matsakaicin kuskure (median) ya sauko daga 1.56 a zuriya ta farko zuwa 0.61 a ta shida. A wannan lokacin, lissafin da samfuri na yau da kullum ke buƙata, wanda aka ƙiyasta daga girman ragarsa (resolution), ya ƙaru kusan sau 29.
Riba mai tsayayyen gudu
Zuriya bayan zuriya, kuskuren yana raguwa da 21, 28, 21 da 14% — jerin da ba shi da tsari. Amma idan aka auna shi da yawan lissafin da kowane mataki ya ƙara, tsarin ya zama mai daidaito: kuskure ya ragu da 13.5% a duk lokacin da lissafi ya ninka, da bambanci na maki 0.7 kawai a cikin sauye-sauye uku inda kwatantawar ke aiki.
Wannan gudu yana ba da lissafi mai sauƙi kuma mai sanyaya rai. Rage kuskure zuwa rabi yana buƙatar kusan ninkawa 4.8, “domin 0.865 a ƙarfi na 4.8 shi ne 0.5”, kamar yadda marubutan suka rubuta — kuma ninkawa 4.8 na nufin kusan lissafi sau 28 fiye da na samfuran yau. A halin yanzu, ƙaruwar lissafi tsakanin zuriyoyi ta yi jinkiri, daga ninkawa 2.2 zuwa 1.1.
Marubutan suna taka-tsantsan game da ma’anar wannan. Ingantacciyar kimiyyar lissafi ma tana inganta samfura, kuma ba za a iya raba su biyun ba, don haka 13.5% yana auna ribar haɗin gwiwa ta lissafi da kimiyya. Kuma yana bayyana ci gaban da ya gabata ne, ba dokar halitta ba.
Ruwan sama ya yi baya
Maki ɗaya yana ɓoye manyan bambance-bambance. Tsakanin zuriya ta farko da ta shida, kuskuren matsin iska a matakin teku ya ragu sau 3.5, na zafin saman ƙasa kuma sau 2.7. A kan ruwan sama, ya ragu da 7%. Shekaru talatin na ƙarin girman raga da sarƙaƙiya da ƙyar suka inganta abin da ya fi muhimmanci ga tasirin yanayi, bisa wannan ma’auni.
Makamashin da babu wanda ke aunawa
Bayyana makamashi bai cika ba. Cibiyoyi takwas da suka wallafa cikakkun bayanai na zuriya ta baya-bayan nan suna da alhakin tan 1,692 na CO₂. A cikin samfura 13 da aka auna makamashinsu, makamashin kowace shekarar da aka kwaikwaya ya bambanta sau 65, kuma da ƙyar yake bin girman raga. Daga cikin cibiyoyi 30, tara ne ke wallafa alƙaluman makamashi na daidaitacce, kuma babu wanda ke bayyana makamashi tare da makin ƙwarewa (skill score).
Samfurorin yanayi na AI kamar GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, FuXi da GenCast yanzu sun yi daidai ko sun zarce hasashe mai cikakken bayani na Cibiyar Turai. Ana cewa gudanar da su ya fi arha sosai. Amma ƙungiyar ba ta sami wani ma’aunin da aka wallafa na makamashin da ake buƙata don samar da hasashensu ba, don haka ta sake gina shi daga kayan kwamfuta da lokutan aiki da aka bayyana. Sannan ta ƙara horo: kusan kWh 2,900 ga GraphCast, kWh 62,000 ga Pangu-Weather. A cikin shekara guda na hasashe huɗu a rana, horo shi ne fiye da kashi 99% na makamashin kowane tsari, kuma Pangu-Weather yana faɗuwa daga na biyu zuwa na ƙarshe a ƙwarewa a kowace kilowatt-hour.
Iyaka maimakon tsani
Taswirar hanyar tana ba da shawarar a yi hukunci kan samfura a kan shimfiɗar ƙwarewa da makamashi: ƙwarewa a gefe ɗaya, makamashi a ɗaya gefen, da rukunin tsare-tsaren da babu wani da ya zarce su a duka biyun. Maki, wato ƙwarewa da aka raba da makamashi, zai iya jera tsare-tsare a cikin aji ɗaya, amma marubutan sun yi gargaɗin cewa kada a taɓa amfani da shi shi kaɗai: samfurin da kusan ba shi da amfani wanda kusan ba ya amfani da makamashi zai sami maki mai kyau. Sun kuma ba da shawarar matakai biyar na bayyana makamashi, daga “an bayyana” zuwa “cikakke kuma an tantance”, da hanyoyi huɗu na yin ƙari da ƙasa: gwaje-gwajen da aka tsara da kyau, sabbin kayan kwamfuta kamar GPU, rage jigilar bayanai, da sassan AI da aka keɓe don wani aiki.
Sun kuma nuna haɗarin: gudanarwa mai arha na iya nufin kawai ƙarin gudanarwa, kuma horar da manyan samfurorin yanayi har yanzu yana tattare a hannun ƙungiyoyi da ƙasashe kaɗan. Matakinsu na farko mai sauƙi ne. A bayyana makamashi kusa da daidaito, da iyakoki bayyanannu, kafin zuriya ta gaba ta samfura — CMIP8 — ta fara.