Mathematics · the experiment
Win more matches than points
Your player wins every point with the same chance. Set it, measure what tennis scoring makes of it, then look for the narrow corner where you win most of your matches with fewer than half of the points.
1 · The scoring magnifier
Beginner
To win 80% of matches, in which format does a player need the smallest share of the points?
Five sets. Set the share of points your player wins until they win 80% of matches.
2 · Three sets or five
Intermediate
At 54% of the points, the model gives 91% of matches won over five sets. And over three sets?
3 · The average misleads
Expert
Your player wins 50% of the points against half of their opponents, 58% against the other half: 54% on average. Over three sets, at exactly 54%, the model gives 86% of matches. What share of matches do they win on average?
Federer wins 54% of the points on average, but against very different opponents. Keep that average and spread the opponents apart, stronger and weaker, until the model recovers Federer's 82%.
4 · The paradox corner
Two kinds of points now: ordinary points, and game points, the points whose winner, whoever it is, closes the game.
Expert
Game points make up about 29% of all points. Your player wins 49% of ordinary points and 53% of game points. Do they win most of their matches with fewer than half of the points?
Still 49% of ordinary points. Set the share of game points until your player wins most of their matches with fewer than half of the points.
More matches than points
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