A 2025, ƘASA TA SAKE SHAN NUMFASHI
Kowace shekara, ɗan Adam yana ƙara carbon dioxide a sararin samaniya, kuma kowace shekara ƙasa da teku suna mayar da wani ɓangarensa. Bambancin yana bayyana a matsayin saurin ƙaruwar CO₂ a iska, wanda ake auna shi da sassa a cikin miliyan (ppm) a kowace shekara.
A 2024, wannan saurin ya kai matsayin da ba a taɓa gani ba: ppm 3.76 a shekara, a cewar cibiyoyin NOAA da ke bakin teku. Tsarin halittu na ƙasa sun sha carbon kaɗan fiye da yadda aka saba a 2023–2024. Sannan, a 2025, saurin ƙaruwar ya faɗi zuwa ppm 2.06 a shekara — raguwar kashi 45%, kuma ƙasa da matsakaicin 2015–2022 na 2.47. Ƙiyasi biyu da aka yi da tauraron ɗan adam sun tabbatar da wannan raguwa.
Abin da ya sa wannan ya zama abin mamaki shi ne, hayaƙin man fetur da kwal bai ragu ba. Ya ƙaru da kashi 0.7%, zuwa kimanin tan biliyan 10.38 na carbon (GtC) a 2025.
Lissafi cikin watanni, ba shekara ba
Lissafin carbon na duniya na hukuma (Global Carbon Budget) yana zuwa ne kusan shekara guda bayan abin ya faru. Philippe Ciais da Piyu Ke, na Cibiyar Nazarin Yanayi da Muhalli ta Faransa, Xiangjun Tian, na Kwalejin Kimiyya ta China, da abokan aikinsu sun gina wani nau’i mafi sauri na 2025 ta hanyoyi biyu masu zaman kansu:
- Daga ƙasa zuwa sama (bottom-up): samfuran kwamfuta uku na tsirran duniya, waɗanda bayanan yanayi na baya-bayan nan ke tafiyar da su, tare da masu kwaikwayon samfuran teku da aka gina da koyon na’ura (machine learning), waɗanda ake amfani da su a lissafin hukuma, da bayanan gobara daga tauraron ɗan adam.
- Daga sama zuwa ƙasa (top-down): “juyawa” (inversions) guda huɗu da ke aiki baya-baya daga ma’aunin CO₂ a cikin dukan ginshiƙin iska da tauraron ɗan adam na NASA OCO-2 ke yi, wanda bayanansa ke samuwa cikin kusan makonni shida kuma suke rufe yankunan wurare masu zafi sosai.
Ƙaruwar CO₂ a sararin samaniya a kowace shekara tun 1959: sandar 2024 mafi tsawo a tarihi ta biyo da raguwa mai kaifi a 2025. — Hoto na 1a, Ciais, Ke, Tian et al. (2026), arXiv:2609.34226.
Ƙasa ce ta yi aikin
Hanyoyin biyu sun yarda kan babban labarin. A matsakaici, ma’ajiyar carbon ta ƙasa ta kai GtC 2.36 ± 0.16 a shekara a 2025 — GtC 2.81 fiye da na 2024, kuma GtC 0.71 sama da matsakaicin 2015–2022. A 2024, samfuran tsirrai ma sun gano ƙasa a matsayin tushen carbon a jimilla, yayin da juyawan suka sami ma’ajiya ƙanƙanuwa kawai.
Teku kuwa, ya sha GtC 3.11, kusan daidai da na 2024. Saboda haka farfaɗowar shan carbon na ƙasa ita ce babban dalilin da ya sa saurin ƙaruwar CO₂ ya ragu. A cewar bayanan tauraron ɗan adam, mafi yawan raguwar ta faru ne tsakanin ƙarshen 2024 da farkon 2025, bayan ƙarshen El Niño na 2023/24 kuma yayin da zafin duniya na musamman ya fara sassauta.
Farfaɗowa mara daidaito
A ina ƙasa ta farfaɗo? Ƙasashen wurare masu zafi sun sauya daga tushen carbon a 2024 zuwa ma’ajiya a 2025, da shan carbon mai ƙarfi a yawancin Afirka da arewacin Eurasia a hanyoyin biyu. A yankin wurare masu zafi na Kudancin Amurka, asarar da fari da gobarar ƙarshen 2024 suka haifar ta ci gaba har zuwa farkon 2025 kafin ta dushe. Shan carbon ya bi ruwa: a yankunan da tauraron ɗan adam suka auna ƙasa mai danshi fiye, tsarin halittu sun sha fiye.
Sannan ƙungiyar ta mai da hankali kan yankunan da suka yi asarar shan carbon mai yawa a 2023–2024:
- kusan kashi 80% na wannan yanki sun nuna wani farfaɗowa a 2025;
- jimillar farfaɗowa ta kai kashi 87% (samfura) zuwa kashi 99.5% (juyawa);
- a wurare masu zafi, ta wuce kashi 100% — shan carbon ya haura tsohon matsakaici;
- a yankunan arewa da ke wajen wurare masu zafi, ba ta cika ba (kashi 60% zuwa 91%).
Farfaɗowar asarar ma’ajiyar ƙasa ta 2023–2024 a 2025, daga samfuran tsirrai (sama) da juyawan tauraron ɗan adam (ƙasa): koren duhu yana nufin farfaɗowa fiye da cikakkiya, ruwan ƙasa babu ko kaɗan. — Hoto na 1e–f, Ciais, Ke, Tian et al. (2026), arXiv:2609.34226.
Ma’ajiyoyi masu sauri, sauye-sauye masu sauri
Marubutan suna ganin cewa yawancin farfaɗowar ta sake cika ma’ajiyoyin carbon da ke sauyawa da sauri, kamar ganye da ruɓaɓɓun ganye a ƙasa. Wannan kuma yana nufin cewa ƙasa za ta ci gaba da jagorantar hawa da saukar ƙaruwar CO₂ daga shekara zuwa shekara. Raguwar 2025 hawa ne a hankali, ba faɗuwa ba: yawan carbon dioxide a iska ya ci gaba da hawa, sai dai ba da tsaurin shekarar da ta kafa tarihi ba.