TUN ZUWAN CHATGPT, DIGIRI YANA ƊAN RAGE KAWO ALBASHI

Abin da ma’aikaci ya sani iri biyu ne. Wani ɓangare za a iya rubuta shi, a koyar da shi kuma a adana shi: dabaru (formulas), dokoki, hanyoyin aiki. Ɗayan ɓangaren ana koyon sa ta hanyar aikatawa kuma yana manne da mutumin: a misalan takardar, ma’aikacin jin daɗin jama’a (caseworker) yana koyon waɗanne abokan hulɗa ne ke buƙatar kulawa ta kusa, likitan tiyata yana koyon lokacin da tsaurin nama (tissue) bai yi daidai ba, mai sasantawa yana koyon yadda zai fahimci yanayin mutanen da ke cikin ɗaki. AI mai ƙirƙira (generative AI) tana sa iri na farko ya zama mai arha kuma mai yawa a daidai lokacin da ake buƙatarsa. Me hakan ke yi wa albashi?

Farashi biyu a takardar albashi

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Darío Judzik da Juan Ignacio Barbiero, na Torcuato Di Tella University a Buenos Aires, sun duba lambobi biyu da aka saba da su: nawa ƙari ma’aikaci ke samu saboda ƙarin shekara ɗaya ta karatu, da kuma saboda ƙarin shekara ɗaya ta ƙwarewa. Karatu yana tsayawa a madadin ilimin da za a iya rubutawa, ko da yake ba daidai ba; shekarun da suka wuce tun barin makaranta suna tsayawa a madadin ilimin da aka samu ta aikatawa.

Samfurinsu (model) yana yin hasashe biyu. Idan na’urori suna samar da ilimin da aka rubuta, ƙarin albashi saboda karatu ya kamata ya ragu. Idan wannan ilimi da hukuncin aiki (practical judgment) suna aiki mafi kyau tare, aikatawa ya kamata ta zama mafi daraja — musamman a farkon aiki, lokacin da mutane suka fi koyo da sauri. Amma wata ƙwarewa tana da alaƙa da tsohuwar hanyar yin aikin kuma tana iya rasa daraja, don haka tasirin zai iya zama korau daga baya.

Ayyukan da ke fuskantar AI, ayyukan da ke da kariya

Gwajin yana amfani da Current Population Survey na Amurka daga Janairu 2018 zuwa Yuni 2026: kusan bayanan albashi 656,000. An jera ayyuka bisa ma’aunin fuskantar AI (AI-exposure index) da aka gina kafin ChatGPT ya wanzu. Rubu’in da ya fi fuskantar AI — masu haɓaka manhajoji, mataimakan gudanarwa, akantoci, manajojin kuɗi, malaman jami’a — ana kwatanta shi da rubu’in da ya fi ƙarancin fuskanta: direbobin manyan motoci, leburori a rumbunan ajiya, masu share-share, mataimakan kula da marasa lafiya (care aides), masu hidima a gidan abinci. Agogon yana farawa a Nuwamba 2022, da fitowar ChatGPT ga jama’a.

Kafin wannan rana, shekara ɗaya ta karatu tana ɗaga albashi da kusan 7.5% a ayyukan da ke fuskantar AI, idan aka kwatanta da 1.7% a waɗanda ke da kariya. Binciken yana kwatanta ma’aikata a cikin sana’a ɗaya, kafin da bayan, don haka yana auna sauye-sauye a waɗannan “farashi” na karatu da ƙwarewa, ba a matsakaicin albashi ba.

Shekarar makaranta, da sabon farashi

A ayyukan da ke fuskantar AI, ƙarin albashi na shekara ɗaya ta karatu ya ragu da maki 0.55 idan aka kwatanta da ayyukan da ke da kariya — daga kusan 7.5% zuwa 6.9%, raguwar kusan 7% na darajarsa ta da. A ayyukan da ke da kariya ya tsaya a 1.7%. Babu wani sauyi sannu-sannu (drift) kafin fitowar, kuma karyewar tana bayyana a cikin watanni goma sha biyu na farko.

Aikin da ke karkata

Ƙwarewa ba ta hau ko ta sauka gaba ɗaya ba; lanƙwasar (curve) ta juya. Ƙarin shekara ɗaya ta ƙwarewa tana biyan maki 0.26 fiye ga wanda ke da shekaru uku a baya, kusan daidai a shekaru goma sha biyar, kuma maki 0.12 ƙasa a shekaru ashirin da biyar. A babban samfurin marubutan, tasirin yana canza alama a kusan shekaru 18; da lanƙwasa masu sassauci, karkatar tana nan amma ainihin wannan wuri ba shi da tabbas sosai. Karkatar ta fi ƙarfi tsakanin ma’aikata masu digirin jami’a.

Idan aka haɗa, ma’aikaci mai shekaru goma sha shida na karatu da goma sha biyar na ƙwarewa a aikin da ke fuskantar AI yana samun kusan 3.2% ƙasa da abin da yanayin ayyukan da ke da kariya zai yi hasashe.

Gwaje-gwaje don kawar da kwatsam

Mayar da ranar farawa zuwa Janairu 2020, farkon annobar (pandemic), ba ya haifar da wani tasiri.
Amfani da doka ɗaya ta bai ɗaya ga albashi mafi girma, waɗanda ƙididdigar Amurka ke sanya musu iyaka kuma take rubuta su daban tun Afrilu 2023, yana barin sakamakon kusan ba canji.
Cire ayyukan kwamfuta da lissafi, waɗanda korar ma’aikata a masana’antar fasaha ta shafa a lokaci guda, har yanzu yana barin raguwar karatu a maki 0.49.

Raguwar ƙarshen aiki ita ce ɓangaren hujja mafi rauni: kafin fitowar, wannan ƙarshen lanƙwasar tuni yana ɗan girgiza.

Ba hasashen gaba ba

Marubutan ba sa da’awar cewa digiri ya rasa darajarsa ko kuma waɗanda suka kammala karatu sun rage ƙwazo. Sakamakonsu sake farashi ne na ɗan gajeren lokaci a cikin ayyukan da ke fuskantar AI. Zaɓin karatu, horo da ayyukan farawa za su daidaita. Tambaya ɗaya, sun rubuta, mai yiwuwa ita ce za ta fi muhimmanci a dogon lokaci: ko ma’aikata za su iya ci gaba da samun gwanintar aiki da ke ƙara daraja, idan AI ta mayar da wani ɓangare na tsarin koyo kansa aikin na’ura (automates).