SHEKARU GOMA KAFIN GIRGIZAR ƘASA TA 8.8 A KAMCHATKA

A ranar 29 ga Yuli 2025, wata girgizar ƙasa mai ƙarfin 8.8 ta auku a gaɓar gabas ta Kamchatka Peninsula, inda farantin Pacific ke nutsewa ƙarƙashin farantin Okhotsk. Ta fasa tsawon kilomita 500 na iyakar da ke tsakanin farantan — girgizar ƙasa mafi girma da aka taɓa yi wa rajista a duniya tun girgizar Tohoku-oki mai ƙarfin 9.1 ta 2011, a cewar nazarin. Wannan ɓangare ɗaya ya taɓa fashewa a ranar 4 ga Nuwamba 1952, a wata girgizar ƙasa mai ƙarfin 9.0 da ta tura tsunami mai ɓarna a ko’ina cikin Pacific.

Kafin layin karaya ya fashe, shaidu da yawa sun nuna cewa yana wucewa ta wani lokacin shiri: lalacewa tana taruwa, nakasa (deformation) tana taruwa wuri ɗaya, ƙananan girgizar ƙasa suna canza yanayinsu. Stanisław Lasocki, Beata Orlecka-Sikora da Mateusz Olszewski, na Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences a Warsaw, sun nemi wannan lokaci a cikin shekaru goma kafin aukuwar 2025.

Lambobi biyu don karanta tarin girgizar ƙasa

Ƙungiyar tana amfani da alamomi biyu da ta haɓaka a ayyukan baya:

• dc, wato “seismic regularity coefficient”: tana auna yadda girgizar ƙasa da ke bin juna ke kama da juna — a lokacin tun ta baya, nisa daga gare ta, da girmansu. Ƙaramin dc yana nufin tsari mafi daidaito, wanda suke fassara a matsayin nakasa da ke taruwa a yanki ɗaya.
• SSD, wato “seismic strain dynamics coefficient”: ƙiyasin saurin da dutse ke nakasa.

Bisa ga ƙirar lalacewarsu, faɗuwar dc tana nuna lokacin da yankunan nakasa masu gasa suka haɗu zuwa ɗaya, wurin da bayansa tsagewa ke yaɗuwa ba tare da tsayayyiya ba. Sannan dc ta sake hawa, kuma babbar girgizar ƙasa tana yawan zuwa kusa da ƙololuwarta.

Sun yi amfani da wannan a kan wani kundin ƙasa da ƙasa: girgizar ƙasa 2,682 masu ƙarfin 3.6 zuwa sama, daga Janairu 2014 zuwa 20 ga Yuli 2025, a cikin wani yanki da aka zana kewaye da layin karayar. Layukansu sun tsaya a ranar 16 ga Yuli 2025, kafin girgizar gargaɗi ta ƙarshe da babbar girgizar.

Aukuwa bakwai, yanayi biyu

Tsakanin 2014 da 2025, yankin ya samar da aukuwa bakwai na manyan girgizar ƙasa, ciki har da wata mai ƙarfin 7.5 a Maris 2020 kusa da tsibirin Paramushir, wata mai ƙarfin 7.0 a ranar 17 ga Agusta 2024 kusa da Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, kuma, a ranar 20 ga Yuli 2025, wata mai ƙarfin 6.7 da wata mai ƙarfin 7.5 ta biyo bayanta bayan minti 20. Ta 8.8 ta zo kwanaki tara bayan haka.

Kafin 2022, kowace aukuwa ta riga ta da zurfaffiyar faɗuwar dc, sau da yawa tare da faɗuwar SSD. Sannan dc ta hau kuma manyan girgizar suka auku kusa da ƙololuwarta, tsakanin kwanaki takwas zuwa shekara ɗaya bayan faɗuwar. Misali, ga ta 7.5 ta 2020, dc ta kai ƙasa a ranar 12 ga Yuni 2019 kuma ta kai ƙololuwa a ranar girgizar, kusan watanni tara daga baya.

Bayan 2022, hoton ya canza. Faɗuwar ta zama mara zurfi sosai, a kan wani dogon yanayin hawa da ya ci gaba har zuwa babbar girgizar ƙasa. Marubutan sun sanya wani wurin juyawa na ƙarshe a Maris 2025, kusan watanni biyar kafin babbar girgizar.

Ma’aunin daidaito dc (an lissafa shi bayan cire girgizar bayan-aukuwa): zurfaffiyar faɗuwa kafin 2022, sannan yanayin hawa har zuwa Yuli 2025. Jajayen triangles suna nuna girgizar ƙasa masu ƙarfin 5.9 zuwa sama. — Figure 6a, Lasocki, Orlecka-Sikora & Olszewski (2026), arXiv:2610.13696.

Ba shiri ɗaya ba, biyu ne a kan juna

Fassarar ƙungiyar: rajistar ta ƙunshi tsare-tsare biyu a lokaci guda.

• Zagayen 2014–2022 na wasu layukan karaya ne, galibi a can kudu kusa da Severo-Kurilsk, inda manyan girgizar ƙasa tara suka taru. Babu girgizar ƙasa mai ƙarfin 5.9 ko fiye da ta auku cikin kilomita 150 na cibiyar girgizar ta gaba tsakanin 2014 da Agusta 2024.
• Daga farkon 2022, ɓangaren da zai fashe a 2025 ya fara aiki a matsayin tsari ɗaya mai haɗe. Marubutan sun ba da shawarar cewa matsin da girgizar kudu suka saki ya yaɗu a hankali zuwa arewa yayin da zurfaffun matakai masu laushi (ductile) ƙarƙashin ɓawon ƙasa ke kwarara, kuma ya isa wannan ɓangare kusan shekaru biyu daga baya.

Wannan ya dace da nazari masu zaman kansu na yankin ɗaya — bisa girgizar ƙasa ta bayan fage, auna wuri ta tauraron ɗan adam da nauyi (gravity) — waɗanda ke bayyana yankin fashewar 2025 a matsayin aƙalla faci uku daban-daban da suka fashe tare. Ma’aunin yana ƙara kwanan wata: lokacin da facin suka fara aiki tare.

Wani nazari na yankin ɗaya ya gano cewa yawan matsakaitan girgizar ƙasa ya kasance a tsaye har zuwa kwanaki goma na ƙarshe kafin babbar girgizar. Ma’aunin dc, da aka lissafa daga girgizar ɗaya, yana nuna sauyi mai kwanan wata kusan shekaru uku kafin haka.

Nazari bayan aukuwa, tare da sharuɗɗa

Marubutan suna ganin “babban yuwuwar hasashen girgizar ƙasa” a cikin alamominsu, waɗanda ake amfani da su tuni don sa ido kan yankin Colima a Mexico a kai tsaye. Amma wannan nazarin yana duban baya ne kan girgizar ƙasa da ta riga ta auku, kuma yana kimanta ma’aunan marubutan da kansu, waɗanda aka gina kan ƙirar ka’ida da har yanzu rubutu ne da ba a wallafa ba. Sun lissafa ƙarin iyakoki: bayanin canja matsin ya dogara ne kan kwatancen girman tsari (order of magnitude) da aka aro daga wata girgizar ƙasa, daidaiton facin ya dogara ne kan kwatancen gani na taswirorin da aka wallafa, kuma an zana rukunan girgizar biyu da akwatuna kafaffu na ƙasa.