EL NIÑO NA 2026: INDA ƘASA ZA TA RASA CARBON ƊINTA

Abubuwan El Niño suna girgiza zagayowar carbon ta duniya. A kan ƙasa, suna kawo fari da zafi ga wurare masu zafi da ƙarin gobara — kuma mashayin carbon (carbon sink) na ƙasa, wato adadin carbon da tsirrai da ƙasa ke sha a kowace shekara bayan an cire abin da suke fitarwa, yana raunana. A lokacin manyan El Niño na 1997–1998, 2015–2016 da 2023–2024, wannan mashayi ya ragu da kusan rabi.

Wani sabon El Niño yana bayyana tun Yuni 2026. Zuwa Yuli, ma’aunai da dama sun riga sun sanya shi a matakin ƙarfin 1997–1998 da 2015–2016 ko sama da haka a mataki ɗaya. Tsarin hasashe, har da na NOAA, sun yarda cewa ya kamata ya kai matakin “mai ƙarfi sosai” kuma ya kai ƙololuwa a Oktoba–Disamba 2026.

Hasashen yanayi na lokaci-lokaci sun riga sun yi gargaɗi game da fari da ambaliya. Xiaomeng Du, Wei Li da abokan aikinsu a Tsinghua University a Beijing, tare da ƙungiyar Philippe Ciais a Paris-Saclay da Pierre Friedlingstein da Stephen Sitch a University of Exeter, sun tambayi ko za su iya yin gargaɗi game da zagayowar carbon ma — kafin ɓarnar ta faru.

Makoma 51, ƙirori biyu na tsirran duniya

Ƙungiyar ta ɗauki hasashen lokaci-lokaci 51 da tsarin hasashe na ECMWF ya fitar a ranar 1 ga Yuni 2026 — sigogi 51 masu yiwuwa na rabin shekara ta biyu. Kowanne ya tafiyar da ƙirori biyu na tsirran duniya, ORCHIDEE-MICT da JULES, waɗanda ke kwaikwayon yadda tsirrai ke girma, numfashi, ruɓewa da ƙonewa: kwaikwayo 102 gaba ɗaya. Wata ƙirar koyon na’ura (machine learning), da aka horar da taswirorin tauraron ɗan Adam na wuraren da suka ƙone, ta yi hasashen inda gobara za ta bazu a kowane yanayi.

Muhimmin adadi shi ne net biome productivity na ƙasa: carbon da photosynthesis ke ɗauka, a cire carbon da numfashi da gobara ke fitarwa. Raguwa mara kyau (negative anomaly) tana nufin mashayi mai rauni.

Matsakaici mai sauƙi, wurare masu zafi masu tsanani

Hasashen sun haɗu a kan abu ɗaya: fari. Duk yanayi 51 suna hasashen ƙarancin ruwan sama na duniya ƙasa da ma’aunin kashi 10 na yau da kullum (10th percentile), tare da ruwan sama na wurare masu zafi ya ragu da kusan 12% daga Yuli zuwa Disamba.

Ga dukkan duniya, matsakaicin hasashe shi ne mashayi mai rauni da tan biliyan 0.23 na carbon a Yuli–Disamba 2026 — ya fi sauƙi fiye da 0.95 na 2015 da 1.39 na 2023 a watanni ɗaya. Amma yanayin da ya fi tsanani ya kai kusan tan biliyan 1, kwatankwacin 2015.
Asarar ta fito ne galibi daga ƙarin numfashin tsirrai da ƙasa, da kuma daga gobara, wani ɓangare kuma ƙarin photosynthesis a yankuna masu matsakaicin yanayi da na arewa ya rama shi.
A matakin gida, 2026 ya fi na baya muni: kusan 11% na ƙasar duniya za ta rasa carbon fiye da a 2015 da 2023 duka — 16% a wurare masu zafi.

Brazil da ƙasar fadamar peat

Kudancin Amurka na wurare masu zafi shi ne babban wuri mai haɗari, da kusan 44% na raguwar duniya; 44 daga cikin yanayi 51 sun yarda a kan alƙiblar. A cikinsa, Brazil ta fice: dazuka masu danshi na arewa maso gabas, da ciyayi da savanna na tsakiya, da mafi girman haɗari tsakanin Satumba da Disamba. Kudancin Afirka, tsakiyar Arewacin Amurka da gabashin Australia kowanne yana da nasa lokacin haɗari.

Gobara tana ba da wani taswira dabam. Asiya ta Ekweta — Indonesia, Papua New Guinea da Malaysia — za ta iya ganin yankin da ya ƙone sau 5.6 fiye da matsakaicinta na 2016–2025 daga Yuli zuwa Disamba, galibi a kan ƙasar peat. Kusan hekta miliyan 12 na ƙasar peat ta wurare masu zafi mai dazuka tana fuskantar ƙarin haɗarin gobara. Ciyayin arewacin Australia za su iya ƙonewa kusan 60% fiye da yadda aka saba. Ƙiyasin gobara na tauraron ɗan Adam kusan nan take sun riga sun goyi bayan hasashen ga Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya da Australia.

Gaskiya tana gaba

Marubutan sun duba hasashensu da yanayin da aka lura da shi a zahiri a Yuli da Agusta 2026. Zafin da aka lura da shi ya fi na duk yanayi 51, kuma ruwan sama na wurare masu zafi ya faɗi ƙasa da har ma mafi bushewa daga cikinsu. Yanayin da ya fi kusa da zafin gaske yana hasashen asarar wurare masu zafi ta tan biliyan 1.1 — fiye da matsakaicin nesa. Suna gargaɗi cewa ainihin raunanar mashayin carbon za ta iya fin har ma mafi tsananin hasashe.

Nazarin yana da iyakoki: ƙirori biyu kawai na tsirrai, amfani da ƙasa an daskarar da shi a yanayinsa na 2010, da rashin tabbas na hasashe da ke ƙaruwa da lokaci, musamman ga ruwan sama na wurare masu zafi. Duk da haka marubutan suna kira da a ba da fifiko wajen sa ido kan ƙasar peat ta Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya — a riƙe ta da danshi, a guji tsotse ruwanta, kuma a rage gobarar da mutane ke kunnawa.