BAYAN GUGUWA, HANYAR DAWOWA CIKI CE TAFI DAƊEWA

Guguwa masu zafi na yankin wurare masu zafi (tropical cyclones) suna ƙara ƙarfi tare da sauyin yanayi, haka ma kuɗin da suke jawowa. Yawancin bincike kan yadda mutane ke mayar da martani ya mai da hankali ne kan ƙaura: wane ne ke barin wuri kafin guguwa. Abin da ke faruwa daga baya, yayin da al’ummomi ke sake motsawa, an yi nazarinsa ƙasa da haka sosai — yawanci ga guguwa ɗaya a birni ɗaya. Marubutan sun gabatar da shi a matsayin batun adalci: ba wai kawai wane ne zai iya barin wuri ba, amma wane ne aka bari yana jira.

Guguwa biyu, tazarar kwanaki goma sha uku

Lokacin guguwa na Tekun Atlantika na 2024 ya ba da kwatancen da ba a saba gani ba. Guguwar Helene ta sauka a ƙasa a ranar 26 ga Satumba 2024 kuma Guguwar Milton a ranar 9 ga Oktoba, kwanaki 13 kawai daga baya, duk a kudu maso gabashin Amurka. Ɓarnar Helene ta isa nesa a cikin ƙasa, har da ambaliya a kudancin Appalachia, a yankunan da galibi na karkara ne. Milton ta bugi Florida ta bakin teku mai birane.

Angelina Liu, ta makarantar sakandare ta Scarsdale a New York, ta yi aiki tare da Mengqiu Cao na University College London da Sen Pei da Qing Yao na Jami’ar Columbia. Sun ɗauki kowace ƙaramar hukuma da ke cikin mil 100 na hanyar kowace guguwa: 487 ga Helene, 34 ga Milton, inda mutane miliyan 42.9 ke zaune.

Karanta farfaɗowa a cikin alamun waya

Bayanansu ƙididdigar yau da kullum ce ta ziyarce-ziyarce zuwa shaguna, ofisoshi, asibitoci, makarantu da sauran wurare, da wani kamfani na kasuwanci ya rubuta daga na’urorin hannu. Ƙungiyar ta rarraba su zuwa ayyuka shida — tafiya, aiki, lafiya, ilimi, kasuwanci da nishaɗi, gwamnati — da nau’ikan motsi uku:

• na cikin gida: tafiye-tafiye da ke farawa kuma suke ƙarewa a cikin yankin;
• shigowa: ziyarce-ziyarce da ke zuwa daga wajen yankin da abin ya shafa;
• fita: tafiye-tafiye da ke barinsa.

Ga kowace kwarara, wani samfurin ƙididdiga ya yi hasashen yadda zirga-zirga za ta kasance ba tare da guguwa ba, bisa 2023 da makonnin da suka gabata. Lokacin farfaɗowa shi ne lokacin da ziyarce-ziyarcen da aka lura suka koma wannan matakin da ake tsammani.

Bambancin yau da kullum daga motsin da ake tsammani ga ayyuka shida, ga tafiye-tafiye na cikin gida, tashi da zuwa (a–f), da lokutan farfaɗowa (g, h): farfaɗowar cikin gida iri ɗaya ce, amma zuwan mutane yana ɗaukar lokaci mai tsawo sosai bayan Helene (shunayya) fiye da bayan Milton (kore). — Hoto na 1, Liu, Cao, Pei & Yao (2026), arXiv:2610.17550.

Girgizar da ta fi zurfi ta farfaɗo da sauri

Milton ta fi bugawa, a kowane rukuni. Motsin cikin gida ya faɗi da 24 zuwa 45% ƙarƙashin Milton, idan aka kwatanta da 8 zuwa 13% ƙarƙashin Helene. Ziyarce-ziyarce daga waje sun faɗi har zuwa 60%. Tashi ya yi tashin gwauron zabi kwanaki biyu kafin saukar Milton.

Duk da haka rayuwar cikin gida ta dawo da gudu ɗaya bayan guguwar biyu: matsakaicin tsakiya na kwanaki 4.4 bayan Helene da kwanaki 4.5 bayan Milton, ba tare da wani bambanci mai muhimmanci ba.

Tazarar tana cikin sake haɗuwa. Ziyarce-ziyarce daga waje sun ɗauki kwanaki 11.3 zuwa 13.3 kafin su farfaɗo bayan Helene, a dukan rukunoni shida, idan aka kwatanta da kwanaki 4.4 zuwa 5.5 bayan Milton. Ziyarar lafiya da ke shigowa, alal misali, ta ɗauki kwanaki 12.1 bayan Helene da 4.6 bayan Milton. A matakin cikin gida, farfaɗowar shigowa ta ɗauki matsakaicin tsakiya na kwanaki 11.1 bayan Helene da 5.1 bayan Milton — fiye da ninki biyu.

Inda motsi ya fi faɗuwa: ƙarƙashin Helene (sama), faɗuwa mafi zurfi a zuwan mutane tana nesa a cikin ƙasa. — Hoto na 2a, Liu, Cao, Pei & Yao (2026), arXiv:2610.17550.

Wane ne abin ya shafa, kuma me ya sa

Ƙarƙashin Helene, ruwan sama mafi yawa ya tafi tare da faɗuwa mafi girma a zuwan mutane, kuma yankunan bakin teku sun ga raguwa mafi zurfi a cikin gida. Yawan kaso na mazauna farar fata shi ma yana da alaƙa da faɗuwa mafi zurfi a zuwan mutane — amma wannan alaƙar ta ɓace da zarar an yi la’akari da manyan tsarin ƙasa, wanda ke nuna cewa yana da wuya a raba yanayin ƙasa da tsarin jama’a a nan. Ga Milton, samfurin ya yi ƙanƙanta don wata bayyananniyar alaƙa.

A kula da wanda ke dawowa

Saƙon marubutan ga masu tsara agajin gaggawa: zurfin faɗuwar farko jagora ne mara kyau na wanda ke farfaɗowa a hankali. Al’umma na iya sake bayyana a cike da hada-hada yayin da alaƙarta da yankin da ke kewaye har yanzu take a yanke. Bin saurin dawowar baƙi zai iya nuna wuraren da sufuri da samun muhimman ayyuka suka cancanci dubawa — a taƙaitaccen bayaninsu, keɓewar karkara ita ce abin da ya kamata masu tsara su mai da hankali a kai.

Sun lissafa iyakokin da kansu. Guguwa biyu ba za su iya bayyana wane bambanci ba — yanayi, ƙasa ko tsarin matsugunai — ne ya haifar da jinkirin sake haɗuwar Helene. Bayanan na’urori ba sa faɗin dalilin da yasa mutane ke tafiya kuma suna iya rage ƙidayar mazauna karkara, tsofaffi da masu ƙaramin kuɗin shiga. Kuma komawar ziyarce-ziyarce zuwa yadda suke ba ya tabbatar da cewa muhimman ayyuka sun dawo.