Hasashen girgizar ƙasa yana gaya maka yiwuwar karyewar layin tsagewar ƙasa (fault). Ba ya taɓa faɗin inda karyewar za ta fara. A 2019, wata ƙungiyar Japan ta gwada duk da haka.
Alamarsu: b-value. Tana kwatanta ƙananan girgizar ƙasa da manya, kuma tana raguwa yayin da matsi (stress) ke ƙaruwa. Bayan 2016, ta ragu a wuri ɗaya kawai a kan layin Hinagu.
A ranar 28 ga Yuli 2026, girgizar ƙasa mai ƙarfin 7.1 ta afka wa layin Hinagu. Cibiyarta a saman ƙasa (epicentre) tana da nisan kilomita 2.9 daga gefen murabba'insu na 2019. Wurin da ta fara, a zurfin kilomita 16, yana cikin yankin da b-value ke ƙasa.
A sanin marubutan, ba a taɓa buga wurin farawar wata babbar girgizar ƙasa tun kafin ta auku ba. Ɗan takararsu na gaba wani lanƙwasa ne a layin, wanda har yanzu yake ƙarƙashin matsi. Ba su ba da rana ba, wuri kawai.
Tushe: Advance identification of where the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake would begin, https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39393









