ALƘALIN MUTUM-MUTUMI DA YA SAKE RUBUTA YANKIN STRIKE

Algorithms yanzu suna yanke hukunci game da mutane a ɗaukar aiki, ba da rance, beli da ba da maki. Yawancin bincike suna tambaya ko na’urar tana yanke hukunci fiye da ɗan Adam da take maye gurbinsa. Seung Jin Cho, na Dankook University, da Jun Yeong Lee, na Pusan National University, sun yi wata tambaya daban: me sauyin ke yi wa mutanen da ake yi wa hukunci?

Baseball yana sa hakan ya zama mai aunawa. Ana bin kowace jifa, kuma ana rubuta kowane hukunci a kan jifar da mai bugawa bai buga ba — ball ko strike. A 2024, Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) ta zama gasar ƙwararru ta farko ta mataki mafi girma da ta miƙa wannan hukunci gaba ɗaya ga tsarin ball-strike mai sarrafa kansa (ABS). Ana yanke strike idan kowane ɓangare na ƙwallon ya ratsa wani akwati da aka saita bisa tsayin mai bugawa da aka yi rajista: a 2024, daga kashi 27.64% zuwa 56.35% na wannan tsayin, kuma faɗinsa santimita 47.18 — plate ɗin da santimita 2 a kowane gefe. Hukuncin yana isa ga alƙali ta wata na’urar kunne kuma ba za a iya ƙalubalantarsa ba.

Jifa miliyan ɗaya

Marubutan sun tattara kowace jifa ta lokacin gasa na yau da kullum daga 2021 zuwa 2026, Afrilu zuwa Satumba: jifa 1,203,755, daga cikinsu 657,201 an ƙyale su kuma an yanke musu hukunci. 2022–2023 su ne tushen kwatance na ’yan Adam, 2024–2026 shekarun na’ura. Sake gina dokar da suka yi yana maimaita kashi 98.6% na hukuncin na’urar — kuma kusan kashi 91% kawai na na ’yan Adam, alama ta farko ta yadda yankunan biyu suka bambanta.

Sun raba canjin gida biyu. Na’urar tana cire ra’ayin kai (discretion), ɓangaren hukuncin ɗan Adam da ya dogara da yanayi. Kuma tana tilasta sabuwar siffa, giɓin da ke tsakanin akwatin dokar da yankin da ’yan Adam suka yanke a zahiri.

Alfarmar da ta ɓace

A kan jifar da ke kusa da gefen yankin, alƙalai ’yan Adam sun karkata ga yanayi:

• sun yanke ƙarin maki kashi 6.1 na strike idan mai bugawa yana gaba a ƙidaya, kuma maki 6.7 ƙasa idan akwai strike biyu. Ƙidaya ita ce jimillar ball da strike na karawar da ake ciki, ana faɗin ball da farko: 2-0, 3-0 ko 3-1 yana nufin ball da yawa da strike kaɗan, don haka mai bugawa yana matsayi mai ƙarfi, saboda ball huɗu suna kai shi base na farko kuma strike uku suna fitar da shi;
• sun ba taurarin masu bugawa kusan maki 1.5 ƙasa na strike a kan jifa ɗaya;
• wasu masu kamawa sun kware sosai a “tsarawa” (framing) — kama jifar da ke kan iyaka ta yadda alƙali zai kira su strike. Ƙwarewar mai kamawa da aka auna a wasanni masu musanya na lokaci ɗaya ta sake bayyana a sauran wasannin, da daidaito na 0.60 zuwa 0.81 — ma’ana jerin masu kamawa yana ci gaba da riƙewa daga rabin lokaci ɗaya zuwa ɗayan, alamar ƙwarewa ta gaske ba sa’a ba.

A ƙarƙashin na’urar, ƙidaya ba ta da muhimmanci kuma, fifikon taurari galibi ya ɓace, kuma tsarawa ta zama hayaniya kawai. Idan aka auna da runs — strike ɗaya da aka kira yana ci ƙungiyar da ke bugawa kusan run 0.135 — waɗannan ƙananan gata ne: kusan runs 4.5 ga kowane mai kamawa a kowane lokaci don tsarawa, kusan run 0.9 ga kowane tauraron mai bugawa a kowane lokaci. Tasirin taurari shi ne mafi raunin uku: girmansa ya dogara da yadda marubutan ke kwatanta jifa sosai bisa wuri.

Akwati da ke girma tare da mai bugawa

Sabuwar siffar ta fi muhimmanci. Alƙalai ’yan Adam sun yi hukuncin tsayi a cikakken ma’auni: saman yankinsu yana kusan santimita 102 sama da ƙasa ga mafi gajerun masu bugawa kuma 105 ga mafi tsayi. Na’urar tana daidaitawa da tsayi kuma tana ɗaga shi zuwa santimita 110 ga rukuni mafi tsayi. Sakamakon haka, jifa a kashi na uku na saman yankin ta zama mai yiwuwar a kira ta strike da maki 13.9 fiye, kuma kowace santimita na tsayi ta ƙara maki 0.75 ga rabon jifar sama na mai bugawa da ake kira strike.

Inda yankin strike yake a zahiri, bisa tsayin mai bugawa: a ƙarƙashin na’ura (toka) samansa yana hauhawa tare da mai bugawa; a ƙarƙashin alƙalai ’yan Adam (shuɗi) da ƙyar ya motsa. — Figure 1, Cho and Lee (2026), arXiv:2610.27576.

Alƙalai ’yan Adam sun kuma yi rashin daidaito a haɗuwar ’yan wasa. A gefen waje, mai jifa mai hannun dama da ke fuskantar mai bugawa mai hannun dama ya samu kashi 50.4% na strike, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 42–45% ga sauran haɗuwa; a gefen ciki, mai hannun hagu da ke fuskantar mai hannun hagu ya samu kashi 21.5% kawai. A ƙarƙashin na’urar, yawan strike a gefe yana tsakanin kashi 37% da 42% a kowace haɗuwa.

Manyan canje-canje, ƙananan sakamako

Ga abin mamaki. Jifa kaɗan ne ke sauka a waɗannan gefuna, kuma kaɗan daga cikinsu ne mai bugawa ke ƙyale. Ƙarin strike ɗin ya kai ɗaya a mafi yawa a duk zuwa 23 zuwa plate — zuwa plate ɗaya kuwa karawa guda cikakke ce tsakanin mai bugawa da mai jifa — a haɗuwa mafi fallasa, kuma ƙarin tsayin santimita 10 yana canza damar kaiwa strike biyu ko ball uku da ƙasa da maki kashi biyu; waɗannan su ne ƙidayoyi biyu da karawar ke yankewa a kansu: strike ɗaya kuma yana fitar da mai bugawa, ball ɗaya kuma yana kai shi base na farko.

Ɓangarorin biyu na plate sun mayar da martani daban. Masu jifa sun yi saurin yin niyya sama, kusan gaba ɗaya ta hanyar ɗaga tsayin jifa. Masu hannun hagu, waɗanda ba su shiga wani karkatar gasar gaba ɗaya ta baya zuwa jifar sama ba, sun cim ma a cikin lokaci ɗaya. Masu bugawa, a ɗaya ɓangaren, ba su nuna wani canji da za a iya gani a lokacin da suke bugawa ba — ko da bayan ƙidaya ta daina shafar hukunci. Bayanin marubutan: shirin mai jifa ana saita shi tun kafin lokaci kuma yana amfanar shi a kan kowane mai bugawa, yayin da mai bugawa ke yanke shawara cikin ƙiftawar ido, don ƙaramin riba.

Darasin ya wuce wasanni. Maye gurbin alƙali ɗan Adam da doka yana cire alfarmar da alƙalin ke rabawa, har da darajar ƙwarewar da aka gina don karkatar da su. Ba ya sa sakamako ya zama daidai da kansa kawai ba. Inda aka zana akwatin, da yawan lamuran da ke faɗawa a gefensa, su ne ke yanke wanda zai amfana — kuma marubutan sun lura cewa gasa ɗaya a lokuta uku ba za ta iya faɗa tukuna ko masu bugawa za su daidaita daga ƙarshe ba.