TARON JAMA'A YANA YARDA DA KAI, FIYE DA KIMA KAƊAN

A Manifold, shafin yanar gizo na kasuwar hasashe (prediction market), masu amfani sukan yi tambayoyi game da kansu: “Shin zan je dakin motsa jiki sau uku a wannan makon?”, “Shin zan gama daftarin kundin digirina kafin Juma’a?”, “Shin zan nisanci kafofin sada zumunta a watan Maris?” Sauran masu amfani sai su yi ciniki kan amsar da mana, kuɗin wasa na dandalin. Kowace tambaya tana ƙarewa da farashi — wanda ake karanta shi a matsayin yiwuwar cewa amsar za ta zama EH — wanda daga baya za a iya kwatanta shi da abin da ya faru a zahiri.

’Yan kallo, maganin kyakkyawan fata na littattafai

Ilimin halayyar ɗan adam (psychology) yana da tsammani bayyananne a nan. Mutanen da ke hasashen halayensu suna da kyakkyawan fata: suna rage tsawon lokacin da ayyukansu za su ɗauka kuma suna ƙara ƙima ga yadda za su cika alƙawarinsu, wata karkata da ake kira kuskuren tsarawa (planning fallacy). ’Yan kallo da ke auna shirye-shirye iri ɗaya suna dogara ne ga ƙimar tushe (base rates) — yawan yadda irin waɗannan shirye-shirye sukan yi nasara — kuma ba su da kyakkyawan fata sosai. Kasuwar hasashe ya kamata ta ƙara wannan fifiko, domin tana tara ’yan kallo da yawa kuma tana biyan waɗanda suka gyara farashi mara kyau. Amma kasuwa game da mako na mutum ɗaya siririya ce: ’yan kasuwa kaɗan, kuɗi kaɗan a kan gungumen.

Caca 6,150 kan “Shin zan…?”

Zihan Chen da Di Zhu, na Cibiyar Fasaha ta Stevens (Stevens Institute of Technology) a Hoboken, New Jersey, da Lei Nico Zheng, na Jami’ar Massachusetts Boston, sun samo jerin dukkan kasuwanni 194,347 da aka ƙirƙira a Manifold daga 2021 zuwa 2026. Sun riƙe kasuwannin-kai (self-markets) 6,150 da aka warware — tambayoyi masu duban gaba a mutum na farko — waɗanda mutane 1,660 suka buɗe. Ma’aunin kwatancensu: kasuwannin waje (external markets) 6,272 kan al’amuran waje, kamar zaɓe, wasanni ko fitar da sabuwar fasaha, waɗanda masu ƙirƙira da ba su taɓa yin tambaya game da kansu ba suka yi.

Daga bayanan umarnin saye da sayarwa na dandalin, ƙungiyar ta sake gina hanyar farashin kowace kasuwa da kowane sayayya da aka aiwatar. Hakan ya gaya musu wanda ya motsa kowane farashi: mutumin da makomarsa ke kan gungumen, ɗan kallo ɗan adam, ko shirin ciniki na atomatik. Mataimakan bincike biyu sun duba wannan sake ginawa da shafin yanar gizo kai tsaye kuma, da lambar kwamfuta tasu, sun sake lissafa 23 daga cikin alƙaluman da aka ruwaito.

Kusan maki huɗu na kyakkyawan fata da ya wuce kima

Kasuwa tana daidaitacciya (calibrated) idan sakamakonta yana faruwa kusan sau nawa farashinta ya ce. Kasuwannin waje sun kusan zama haka: sun yi kuskure da maki 0.9 na kaso — maki na kaso shi ne bambanci kai tsaye tsakanin kaso biyu. Kasuwannin-kai ba haka suke ba. Farashinsu na ƙarshe ya kai matsakaicin 49.4%, amma sun ƙare da EH kashi 45.0% kawai na lokuta: ƙarin ƙima na maki 4.4. Gibin ya fi faɗi inda sakamakon ya fi rashin tabbas. Cikin kasuwannin da suka rufe tsakanin 20% da 80%, ya kai maki 9.4, kuma kasuwar-kai da aka yi wa farashin rabi ta tabbata kashi 39% kawai na lokuta, idan aka kwatanta da 47% ga kasuwar waje a farashi iri ɗaya.

Kasuwannin-kai sun fi ƙanƙanta kuma sun fi gajarta fiye da na waje, amma hakan bai bayyana gibin ba. Idan aka kwatanta a matakin farashi iri ɗaya, tare da la’akari da girma da tsawon lokaci, bambancin har yanzu maki 2.2 ne. Kuma cikin mutane 1,222 da suka ƙirƙiri nau’ikan kasuwa biyun, tambayoyinsu game da kansu har yanzu sun ƙare da farashi mafi kyakkyawan fata da maki 1.9 fiye da tambayoyinsu game da duniya.

An haife shi a ranar farko ta ciniki

Mutumin ba ya saka wannan kyakkyawan fata a farashin buɗewa. A farko, kashi 95% na kasuwannin-kai suna kan 50%, ƙimar farko ta dandalin, kuma a farashin buɗewa iri ɗaya, a zahiri sun tabbata maki 3.0 fiye da kasuwannin waje. Ƙarin ƙimar ya bayyana tare da ciniki: kwana ɗaya bayan ƙirƙira, kasuwannin-kai sun riga sun fi kasuwannin waje kyakkyawan fata da maki 2.4 a farashi iri ɗaya, kuma bambancin ya kai ƙololuwa a maki 5.3 mako ɗaya kafin rufewa.

Ya taso har inda mutumin bai taɓa yin ciniki ba. A ranar farko, ’yan kallo ’yan adam sun sayar da kasuwannin waje har farashinsu ya sauka da maki 4.5, daga 50% zuwa ga ƙaramar ƙimar da irin waɗannan al’amura ke faruwa da ita. Kasuwannin-kai game da buri ma sun tabbata ƙasa da rabin lokaci — kashi 44% — amma duk da haka ’yan kallo sun saukar da su da maki 0.8 kawai, kuma inda mutumin bai taɓa yin ciniki ba, ba su saukar da su ko kaɗan ba. ’Yan kallo sun yi amfani da hangen waje (outside view) — auna wani lamari ta yadda irin waɗannan lamura sukan ƙare — kan al’amura, ba kan mutane ba.

Akwai wani keɓantaccen abu na bincike-bincike (exploratory) da ya fito fili. A kasuwanni 294 da EH ɗinsu sakamako ne da mutumin ba zai so ba — komawa ga ɗabi’a, katse jerin nasarori, kamuwa da rashin lafiya — ’yan kallo sun saukar da farashi da maki 6.4 a ranar farko. Waɗannan kasuwanni ba a yi musu farashi fiye da kima ba: farashinsu na ƙarshe ya zo cikin rabin maki na yadda masifar ta faru a zahiri.

Mutumin ne ke riƙe da amsar

A tsawon rayuwar kasuwa gaba ɗaya, ciniki ya motsa farashin kasuwannin-kai maki 27.8 zuwa ga sakamakon ƙarshe a matsakaici, idan aka kwatanta da 37.3 ga kasuwannin waje. Umarnin mutumin na kansa sun samar da kashi 38% na wannan motsi, idan aka kwatanta da 9% ga masu ƙirƙirar kasuwannin waje, kuma kusan rabin rabonsu ya zo a rana ta ƙarshe kafin rufewa. Sayayyarsu ma ta zaɓi ɓangaren da ya yi nasara fiye da na baƙi, galibi kusa da ƙarshe.

Sanin juna bai taimaka ba. ’Yan kallo da suka taɓa mu’amala da mutumin a dandalin a baya ba su zaɓi ɓangaren da ya yi nasara fiye da baƙi ba. Haka ma tarihin nasarorin mutumin: farashi ya bi tarihinsa a kasuwannin-kai na baya, amma bayan farashin, wannan tarihi bai ƙara wata ƙimar hasashe da za a iya ganowa ba.

Abin da babu dabarar lissafi da za ta iya ƙarawa

Tunda karkatar tana da tsari, shin za a iya gyara farashi kawai? Gyaran da aka koya daga kasuwannin da aka warware kafin 2025 ya rage kuskuren farashin kasuwannin-kai na gaba — wanda aka auna da ma’aunin Brier (Brier score), matsakaicin murabba’in nisa tsakanin farashi da sakamako — da kashi 1.5% kawai, wanda ya yi kaɗan da ba za a iya bambanta shi da sifili ba. Dalilin: baya ga karkata zuwa EH, farashin kasuwannin-kai ba sa raba nasarorin gaba da gazawa yadda ya kamata kamar na waje, kuma babu wani sauyi na farashi da zai iya samar da hakan.

Dalilin da ya sa ’yan kallo ke yi wa mutane farashi ta wannan hanya, bayanan ba za su iya warware shi ba. Wataƙila suna da irin fatan mutumin, ko kuma kawai suna karanta burin da aka bayyana a matsayin shaidar abin da zai faru. Kasuwannin suna amfani da kuɗin wasa, cikin al’ummar yanar gizo ɗaya, kuma ba a yi rajistar nazarce-nazarcen tun kafin a fara (preregistered) ba. A matsayin hasashe da za a gwada nan gaba, marubutan suna ba da shawarar cewa dandamalin da ke nuna ra’ayin taron jama’a kan burin wani za su iya nuna sau nawa irin waɗannan buri na irin waɗannan masu amfani suka yi nasara, kuma su gayyaci mutumin ya ba da rahoton ci gabansa ko ya faɗi yiwuwarsa ta kansa. A fahimtarsu, bayanin da taron jama’a ba shi da shi yana hannun mutum ɗaya tilo da ake yi wa makomarsa farashi.